All the different stats available today in the age of analytics can be exhausting! We will explore five statistics in the NFL today that should be used more when discussing player performance. Some stats are overplayed while others deserve more attention. Here are my five underrated important statistics:

1. Air Yards per Completion

Quarterback stats are too quick to anoint players as great when a little more in-depth analysis is required. The classic “dink-and-dunk” quarterback with a lot of yardage but also a lot of attempts or completions is not great in my opinion. Air yards per completion is useful in evaluating quarterback play because it is a way to evaluate efficiency. While we describe below that a team should pass on first down, and that’s likely a short, high-percentage pass, other plays should stretch the field and move the team in chunks down the field. Air yards per completion shows an open playbook and a quarterback’s willingness to stretch and utilize the entire field forcing the defense to cover every inch of grass.

2. EPA – Expected Points Added

This is critical to understanding what happens when teams start with bad field possession, get behind on downs, how much time remains in a half and what we can expect from an opponent when the ball is turned over or punted. It is the addition of all these outcomes and predicts how lethal a team is when on the field. Generally, teams excelling with a higher EPA are more fundamentally sound in special teams, stay in first down or short distance to first down, don’t turn the ball over often and possess the ball for much of the game. A team that plays smart special teams and has good field position starts with a likely advantage to score. Now add in avoiding third down or long distance conversion situations, high time of possession and little turnovers. This leads to high expected points and likely a recipe for success!

3. % of Pass/Rush Play Calls on 1st Down

With the statistic we just discussed EPA, there’s a clear sequence that directly leads to a higher EPA and therefore a higher likelihood that the team will score. Pass-rush-rush or pass-pass-rush are the most successful but many NFL teams have the archaic thinking of rush-rush-pass. The issue lies in that the average rush in the NFL is around four or four and a half yards. Rushing on first down using this average will automatically put you behind in a second-and-long situation. An average completion in the NFL is over eight yards. Taking just the average, a team has already set itself up for a second and short situation. Quite simply, teams with higher percentage of early down passes usually have more efficient offenses and better records.

4. Rush Yards Before Contact/Attempts

A statistic shown in more detail on profootballreference.com. This stat is an easy way to show how competent an offensive line is performing and also how schematic an offense is at disguising run plays and utilizing leverage on the correct side of the field. Running backs need space and running lanes to be efficient and succeed. Some running backs are talented breaking tackles and bouncing off contact. However, putting them in space and avoiding contact as long as possible is the successful method.

5. Time Of Possession

I don’t think there’s enough emphasis on time of possession and how debilitating it is to an opponent’s defense. According to this study, every additional minute an offense possesses the ball, the team’s chance of winning goes up 22 percent. Now this page goes on to argue Chip Kelly’s point that it doesn’t matter. However, defensive players show exhaustion much quicker than offensive players. Running a significant number of plays and holding the ball generally leads to victory. This may not be apparent in the first half of a game. Later on, it will grind a defense down and an offense will move at will if winning the time of possession.

Want to read more from Stine Sports?

I will be pushing to upload at least three articles per week. Click the Twitter button below for quick musings and sports thoughts (likely not as thought out as this blog.) YOUR VIEWS AND FOLLOWS MATTER. Stay tuned for more content! We are only just beginning!

Intersection Of Tech And Sports: Where Are We And Where Are We Heading?

Welcome to the first installation of Stine Sports! This is a blog with the purpose of expanding sports commentary from the usual cacophony of Skip Bayless or Stephen A. Smith. Sports commentary has mostly become nonsensical arguing about teams and so opinion-based it can hardly be intellectual or deemed worthy of consumers’ time. Therefore, the purpose of this blog is to discuss the ever-changing landscape of sports business. Sports on a deeply psychological level touches the hearts and minds of all individuals in some capacity.

New Technology We Could See in Sports

NFT‘s

NFT, non-fungible token, is a digital asset that can be bought and owned by an individual. They are powered by blockchain and can be anything from a piece of art, a gif, video, etc. For the sake of this piece, let’s focus on NFT’s from a sports perspective. With a cursory search of various sites to purchase NFT’s, we see athletes already using this platform to create profiles and sell their likeness on electronic sports cards or gifs and videos.

Because this artwork is encrypted on the blockchain, it is protected from being replicated illegally and is controlled by athlete if they want multiples or just a one-of-one edition. They make a share from the sale and the people mining the crypto will also make a portion through mining fees.

Crypto

Let me start by saying cryptocurrencies do not inherently relate to sports. HOWEVER. With the rise of cryptocurrencies, we could very well see these used in replacement of fiat currencies at sporting events and for purchasing of merchandise. While there are some downfalls to crypto, with accelerated transaction speeds and reducing fees per transaction, this could easily be a viable solution to any transactions related to sports.

We have also begun to see a movement of athletes accepting cryptocurrencies as part or even all their salaries. Odell Beckham, signing with the Rams halfway through the 2021 season, took his entire deal with the Rams in Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin has lost half its value since his signing in November 2021, which could be construed as a bad idea. But it shows the faith in cryptocurrency as a long-term financial solution and will most likely be adopted by more and more athletes.

Integrated Reality

This is in fact something that is already part of sports. When you turn on Sunday Night Football and you see those starting players or those graphics overlayed over the field on the broadcast, that’s integrated reality! Where this could really get interesting is how it could become a part of the game. I envision integrated reality could start to become part of visors for football players. Imagine being a running back prior to the snap. Your visor shows your play, down and distance, health related statistics like an Apple Watch, what coverage the defense is in, etc. This could make the game so much smarter and more dynamic. Simply an incredible feat of technology.

Virtual reality, different from integrated reality, is also coming into the sports realm. The Brooklyn Nets are becoming the first sports franchise to participate in the Metaverse. Will we see more teams or more leagues broadcast games in the Metaverse?

Want to read more from Stine Sports?

I will be pushing to upload at least three articles per week. Click the Twitter button below for quick musings and sports thoughts (likely not as thought out as this blog.) YOUR VIEWS AND FOLLOWS MATTER. Stay tuned for more content! We are only just beginning!